Markets in Limbo, Awaiting a Catalyst
Risk assets remain range-bound with a downward tilt as US inflation stays high. Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed no rush to cut rates, sticking to Quantitative Tightening (QT). Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff threats add inflationary pressure—if the labour market holds, rate cuts and an end to QT in 2025 could temporarily lift risk assets.
Crypto Drifts, But Institutional Interest Grows
BTC remains steady despite US ETF outflows, with no clear trend ahead. Tesla’s Q4 report revealed a $600M unrealized BTC gain, highlighting the growing role of corporate and government BTC holdings. Per Bitcointreasuries.net, 79 public companies, 20 private firms, 11 governments, and 42 ETFs now hold Bitcoin, increasing volatility but also strengthening BTC’s long-term case. MicroStrategy (MSTR) added to its BTC holdings again, reinforcing its position as the largest corporate holder.
Goldman Sachs Bets on Bitcoin ETFs—With a Hedge
Goldman Sachs upped its stake in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to $1.27B (+88% QoQ) while also hedging with $157M in call options and $527M in puts—signaling that ETF holders are already planning exits.
BTC vs. Gold: The Store of Value Play
Bitcoin’s “store of value” narrative gains steam as ETFs expand. Meanwhile, China’s insurers can now buy gold, pushing prices past $2,950 as billions flow in. Notably, both the US and China rank among the top 10 holders of BTC and gold, reinforcing their role as inflation hedges.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. Please consult with a qualified professional before making any investment or financial decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risks, including the potential loss of principal.
