Bitcoin market exhibited notable low volatility during the week of Apr 14th-18th, with prices fluctuating between approximately $83,000 and $86,500. As of April 18th, 2025, the price floats at the current range with cautious sentiment and low trading volume. Solana is the leading gainer of the week. SOL ETH issuance is one of the catalysts to boost SOL price this week. On the other hand, a collapse of Mantra token price by over 90% on April 13th reminded the market participants of illiquidity of altcoins market in general. And in a twist of corporate strategy, Semler Scientific becomes the latest to tie its fate to Bitcoin — for better or worse. Bitcoin Harsh Rate declined from the record level and its correlation to Bitcoin price has been restored.
Canada launched the first-ever Staking-Enabled Solana ETF. That could open the opportunities for the institutional investors for SOL exposure, offering a strong narrative as flows build.
ECB has cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points this week, reflecting general weakness and concerns in its future economic health due to the US tariff policies. The fed chairman Powell shared his caution view on inflation and unemployment and kept their previous stance on its patience for further data.
Crypto Resilience with underlying caution tones
BTC & ETH Derivatives Skew Bearish — But Vols Are Low
The skew toward put options reflects caution, not doom — and the cheapening of Implied Volatilities means options buyers may be waking up soon.
If vol continues to compress into macro events, there’s a strong case for long vol plays (especially 1week straddles). Risk/reward here favors buying volatility over directionally fading.
Key Points:
- BTC options flow showing heavy put skew; some upside Sep call activity.
- ETH options unusually quiet; Implied Volatilities drifting lower.
- Implied vols dropping = straddles and strangles getting cheaper.
- No panic selling — just light hedging.
Semler Scientific Tanks on Unrealized Bitcoin Loss
Semler is now more a BTC proxy than a Medtech company. This is the MicroStrategy effect — but without the size, liquidity, or software margins to back it up.
They’re making a highly asymmetric bet: either they become a “Bitcoin treasury trade”, or they become a case study in what not to do with treasury cash. Right now, the market is punishing BTC-heavy corporates in risk-off regimes.
Key Points:
- Reported a $41.8 million unrealized loss on its BTC treasury.
- Currently holds 3,182 BTC (~$263.5 million).
- Core business (medical diagnostics) underwhelming in comparison.
Canada Approves First Spot Solana ETFs
Canada moves ahead of the US SEC again. U.S. will follow eventually, but Canada just gave institutions a regulated door into SOL. Volatility Shares already launched futures-based SOL ETFs in March. Watch for SOL/BTC potential upside momentum strength if flows pick up.
Key Points:
- OSC greenlights first-ever Solana spot ETFs — going live on the April 16.
- Staking included — yield potential could outshine ETH ETFs.
Global Financial Markets
US Equity markets were less volatile this week although their recovery momentum subsided. European Central Bank’s decision to cut its benchmark rate by 25bps is a supporting factor to EU equity market while German Government’s increased fiscal spending announced in early April also gives further economic relief. Therefore, EU equity seems relatively more attractive overall. Long term US and EU government yields declined this week while gold price marked its all-time high again. Investment capital is allocated to more assured or safe-haven assets.
U.S. Bank Earnings: Consumer & Credit Still Resilient
A notable theme in the reports was how banks are managing credit risk. Most banks showed little concern over potential loan and lease losses. Goldman Sachs, for instance, reduced its credit loss provisions to $287 million in Q1, down from $351 million in Q4 2024. Bank of New York Mellon made a similar move, cutting provisions from $20 million to $18 million. Citibank and Bank of America made only slight increases—Citibank’s allowance rose just 1%, while Bank of America increased its reserves to $13.26 billion from $13.21 billion.
This suggests banks are not anticipating a major wave of loan defaults. That’s encouraging—it points to either continued consumer strength or confidence in banks’ risk controls. However, defaults often lag economic stress, so these figures should be taken with some caution. If conditions worsen due to tariffs, market volatility, or broader economic downturns, we may see the impact in loan losses or provisions right away.
Key Points:
- Banks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup beat estimates.
- Loan growth continues modestly.
- Credit provisions stable, with no signs of broad credit deterioration.
- Trading & investment banking revenue mixed, but mostly positive.
Euro Weakens as Capital Flow Data Surprises
The investment capital is moving — but cross-border flows are creating short-term FX pressure. Eurozone investors are reaching outward for returns, while foreigners are rotating into EU equities. This flow-based FX pressure means EUR/USD could remain capped near-term unless U.S. data disappoints.
This also reflects a macro view of “disinflation with growth” — everyone wants global equity exposure, especially with U.S. tech looking a bit overbought. Watch EUR/USD around the 1.07-1.08 range — a decisive rejection opens downside into 1.06, especially if U.S. data stays hot.
Key Points:
- Non-residents increased Eurozone equity holdings, suggesting confidence in EU recovery.
- Trump vs Fed Chairman Powell: politically motivated rate cut from May or standard monetary policy?
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Markets and the Economy?
As we navigate this turbulent week, several key themes emerge:
- Trump on Fed Chairman Powel
- US Manufacturing PMI April: April 23rd 9:45AM EST
- Beige Book: April 23rd 2PM EST
Final Word
All sectors of tradable market are returning back to normal volatility levels. The US equity indices are well below 200 day moving average price while Germany’s DAX has rebounded above 200 Moving average price followed by FTSE performance beating US Equity indices. Clearly the EU market is better performing than the US markets. The long-term US Treasury yields are still elevated. In the coming weeks, further market volatility is expected due to potential replacement of Fed Chaiman by the President Trump. That will reshape US Monetary policy for the near future with Fed Fund rate cuts potentially. So far this year, the inflation rate in the US has been declining steadily yet the market participants do not expect a rate cut in May FOMC meeting after comments by Chair Powell last week. Any sudden change in Federal Reserve Bank chairman will change this view in the next rate cut timing. A large crypto event scheduled in UAE this coming week indicates potential pre-event support in the crypto market now.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. Please consult with a qualified professional before making any investment or financial decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risks, including the potential loss of principal.
