BTC Resilient, Treasury Adoption Grows, and Solana Tests Market Confidence

Bitcoin traded in a narrow range around $106,000 this week, recovering swiftly from a weekend dip to $98,200 after a U.S. military strike on Iranian assets. The rebound coincided with $588 million in net inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, alongside fresh highs in equities and gold reclaiming the$3,300 mark—highlighting growing risk-on sentiment. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of key macro events: Friday’s Core PCE print, Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony on Wednesday, and the final revision to Q1 GDP on Thursday.

Elsewhere in crypto, treasury accumulation by corporates accelerated, Bitcoin long-term holders posted a record 30-day net inflow, and Ethereum competitors such as Solana regained market share in decentralized trading. Market volatility remains suppressed, but forward-looking positioning points to growing conviction in a second-half breakout.

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Key Developments

Bitcoin Holds Ground Amid Geopolitical Risk and ETF Demand

BTC rebounded from $98,200 weekend low to trade above $106K

• BTC rebounded from $98,200 weekend low to trade above $106K
• $588Mnet inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by IBIT
• Gold fell to $3,287.60; S&P 500 set new record highs

The sharp intraday recovery in BTC despite macro stress suggests strengthening institutional bid, particularly through passive vehicles. Traders are now watching PCE inflation data on June 28 for confirmation of a September rate cut.

Federal Reserve Maintains Hawkish Hold Ahead of Data Week

• Fed funds rate remains at 4.25–4.50%; no new cuts announced
• FOMC projections lifted 2025 inflation to 3.0%, lowered GDP to 1.4%
• Powell flagged tariffs and housing softness as downside risks

While no policy change occurred, the expectations are centred on upcoming data to validate whether disinflation continues. Markets remain divided on timing, with the earliest cut now priced for September.

Bitcoin On-Chain Signals Show Record Holder Conviction

• Long-term holders (LTHs) added 800,000 BTC in 30 days—historic high
• Cost basis clustered between $95K and $107K
• Glassnode and CryptoQuant confirm support at $93K–$98K zone

This is only the sixth time in Bitcoin’s history that monthly LTHinflows exceeded 750,000 BTC. Historically, each of those episodes precededmajor upside moves.

Altcoin Rotation Targets Small-Cap CatalystPlays

• SEI gained 40% after joining the Wyoming Stable Token Partnership
• SYRUP rose 13% on rising DeFi engagement and TVL growth
• Capital rotated into low-float, high-narrative names with momentum

The move reflects a shift from passive ETF-driven flows to opportunistic high-beta plays among altcoins, with regulatory narratives and early ecosystem activity as key drivers.

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Featured Themes

Corporate Treasuries Signal Bitcoin Normalization

ProCap, co-founded by Anthony Pompliano, disclosed a $386M BTC purchase ahead of its planned SPAC merger. This pushes the tally to over 70 public companies now holding a combined $67B+ in BTC. Treasury exposure is also expanding into ETH, BNB, and new entrants like HYPE—suggesting multi-asset allocation is starting to institutionalize.

Ripple Nears Legal Closure with SEC

Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed the firm is dropping its cross-appeal, with the SEC expected to do the same. XRP rose 3.36% to $2.18. Final resolution would eliminate a major legal hurdle and enable Ripple to re-engage with central banks and enterprises on stablecoin and CBDC pilots.

U.S. Housing Regulator Considers Crypto in Mortgage Underwriting

FHFA Director Bill Pulte stated the agency is reviewing whether crypto holdings, particularly BTC, could count toward mortgage qualification. If implemented, the move would mark a regulatory shift toward recognizing digital assets in mainstream lending—especially timely amid falling mortgage originations and tighter credit standards.

Germany’s BaFin Concludes Enforcement Against Ethena GmbH

BaFin has formally approved a 42-day redemption process for USDe holders before winding down Ethena GmbH’s operations in the EU. All future redemptions will be handled by Ethena BVI, signaling a complete regulatory exit from MiCA jurisdiction. The case reinforces the EU’s stricter enforcement stance on unregistered stablecoin issuance.

FTX Bankruptcy Pushes Back Against 3AC’s $1.5B Claim

FTX legal counsel rejected a $1.53 billion claim from Three Arrows Capital, arguing the fund’s losses stemmed from reckless trading, not FTX misconduct. The outcome could significantly impact creditor distribution as the estate aims to limit liabilities from partner failures during the 2022 contagion.

Solana Regains DEX Market Share but Faces Confidence Test

Solana overtook Ethereum in 30-day DEX volume, hitting $64.1B vs. ETH’s $61.4B, with Raydium, Pump.fun, and Orca leading. However, activity remains 91% below January highs, and SOL price is down 15% from its June 12 peak of $168.

Hyperliquid’s dominance in perpetuals, now 84% ahead of its next five rivals combined, has pulled demand away from Solana-based leverage venues. Funding rates remain neutral to negative, showing little bullish conviction.

While the memecoin sector on Solana cooled sharply—many down 25–40%—analysts still cite Solana’s technical edge and potential October spot ETF decision as price catalysts. But for now, derivatives data suggest investors are unconvinced.

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Next Week’s Key Events to Watch

• July 1: Europe Inflation YoY Flash
• July 2: US API/ADP Crude Oil change – following the geopolitical conflict
• July 3: US non-farm payroll, Unemployment rate – forwarding indicator of federal rates movement