Bitcoin Recovers as ETF Flows Turn Green

Bitcoin Recovers as ETF Flows Turn Green

After a shaky start to the week, Bitcoin staged a mid-week comeback that put it back on the front foot heading into the weekend. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had been bleeding assets for four straight sessions, flipped to +$91.55 million in net inflows on August 6 — a reversal that helped lift BTC to a weekly high of $118,740 on Sunday.

The rebound came against a turbulent macro backdrop, with softer U.S. services data, higher-than-expected jobless claims, and a White House trade offensive that rattled global equity markets. Yet Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of risk-off flows underscored its growing role as a structural allocation, not just a speculative trade.

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ETF Flows Show a Split Market

While Bitcoin investment products found their footing mid-week, Ethereum’s institutional flows told a different story. On August 4, U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded a record one-day outflow of $465.1 million, the largest since launch. Despite the exodus, ETH prices recovered into the weekend, closing with a weekly high of $4,331, as on-chain activity surged to 1.87 million daily transactions on August 6, nearing the all-time high.

Solana also showed mixed signals: price momentum cooled, but REX-Osprey’s SOL + Staking ETF (SSK) continued to pull in capital, adding $6.4 million on August 9 and helping SOL hit $186.13. SUI quietly joined the rally, touching $4.00 — part of a broader, if cautious, rotation into large-cap alts.

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Tariff Tsunami: Trump’s Trade War 2.0

Between August 4 and 7, President Trump reignited a global trade firestorm with sweeping tariff measures that rattled allies, roiled markets, and erased over $1 trillion from U.S. equities.

• India was hit with a total 50% tariff after a new 25% penalty over its purchases of discounted Russian oil.
• A 66-country package took effect August 7, targeting Switzerland, Brazil, and Canada. Switzerland faced a 39% duty after failing to secure a deal in Washington.
• The semiconductor sector faced a 100% tariff on imported chips, with exemptions for U.S. production, and a 15% cap on European chip exports.
• Pharmaceutical imports are next in line, with duties set to climb to 150–250% over the next year.

The administration estimates $50 billion per month in tariff revenue, with 2026 totals topping $300 billion — a shift from using tariffs as bargaining chips to wielding them as direct fiscal and industrial policy tools.

Institutional Power Plays & Policy Tailwinds

Institutional infrastructure and balance sheets saw major updates:

• Binance × BBVA Partnership (Aug 8–9) — Enables clients to hold collateral such as U.S. Treasuries off-exchange at BBVA and pledge it as margin on Binance, reducing counterparty risk and meeting post-FTX demands for segregated custody.
• Coinbase Convertible Raise — Announced August 5 at $2.0B and upsized to ~$2.3–2.6B by August 8, signaling long-term expansion plans in derivatives and staking products.

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Institutional Momentum & Strategic Reserves Take Shape

This week, MicroStrategy (Strategy) made headlines by acquiring 21,021 BTC (~$2.46B) between July 28 and August 3 — one of its largest buys since launching its treasury play. The firm now holds nearly 628,800 BTC (~$72.5B), reaffirming its conviction in Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset.

On a broader policy front, the U.S. took its crypto ambitions a step further: regulators with CFTC approval now allow spot crypto contracts to trade on registered futures exchanges — a watershed moment for institutional market infrastructure. Parallelly, Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve initiative is gaining renewed attention, broadening national digital asset holdings beyond BTC to include ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA.

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Altseason on the Horizon?

ETH/BTC traded between 0.030 and 0.037, pressing against a key resistance zone. BTC dominance stalled near 59–62%, historically a pivot point for altcoin rallies. The Altcoin Season Index, at ~37–39, remains well below the 75 “full alt season” threshold — but the combination of ETH strength, SOL ETF inflows, and SUI’s breakout hints at the first stage of rotation.

A clean ETH/BTC breakout above 0.04, coupled with falling BTC dominance, could flip the switch into a more aggressive altcoin phase.

Macro Tailwind: The U.S. has just greenlit 401(k) retirement plans to allocate to alternatives — including crypto — for the first time. This allows everyday savers to access private-market strategies and digital assets through retirement accounts. While flows will ramp gradually as regulations and products come online (180-day guidance window), the long-term potential is huge: multi-hundred-billion-dollar inflows into both ETFs and private-market crypto products.

Major players — BlackRock, Apollo, Blackstone, and Vanguard — are already building hybrid retirement vehicles blending public and private assets with digital exposure. This convergence of mainstream retirement capital and crypto infrastructure could provide a sustained bid under the market, amplifying any alt season rotation.

Beyond ETFs, Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) are gaining attention as corporates and institutions increasingly hold crypto on their balance sheets. SUI, TON, and BNB have all recently closed significant treasury deals — reinforcing the trend of projects using treasury strategies to secure long-term capital and deepen institutional ties. As the 401(k) shift drives broader adoption narratives, both ETFs and DATCOs could become structural demand drivers, amplifying any altseason momentum.

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Macro Check: Data Meets Policy Shock

• Aug 5 – ISM Services PMI: 50.1 (vs 51.5 est) — softening services activity.
• Aug 7 – Initial Jobless Claims: 226K (vs 221K est) — hint of labor-market cooling.
• USD steady despite equity sell-off; gold +0.3% as investors hedged policy uncertainty.

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What We’re Watching Next Week

Bitcoin heads into the week with momentum, reclaiming ETF inflows and holding near highs. Ethereum shrugged off record outflows with surging on-chain usage, Solana’s ETF remains a magnet for capital, and large-cap alts like SUI are showing life.

Key bullish catalysts we’re tracking:

• Aug 12 CPI (U.S.) — a cooler print could accelerate risk-on flows into crypto.
• ETH/BTC breakout watch — clearing 0.031 would likely trigger broad-based altcoin strength.
• Positive follow-through on SSK ETF inflows as a signal for sustained Solana demand.
• Continued BTC ETF inflows — reinforcing the uptrend and keeping the door open for fresh highs.

With macro catalysts aligning and technical setups building, August could deliver the next leg higher for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and select altcoins.