Bitcoin Steadies, Institutions Accumulate—Is a Major Move Coming?

Bitcoin Holds Strong, Eyes $99K

Bitcoin remained resilient this week, shaking off early sell pressure to break past $98,000. With $200M+ in liquidations at $98,900, a push to $99,400 could be next.

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Volume Drops, but Institutional Demand Surges

Spot BTC trading volume has hit 2025 lows, mirroring the stagnation in BTC ETF market cap. But while market activity slows, big money is moving in:

• The California State Teachers Retirement System revealed an $83M stake in MicroStrategy (MSTR).
• Paul Tudor Jones’ firm doubled its BlackRock BTC ETF stake to $426.9M. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company made a major move into Bitcoin, acquiring 8.2 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) in Q4 2024—an investment worth $436.9M. This positions Mubadala as the seventh-largest known IBIT holder, ahead of major U.S. banks like PNC and BNY Mellon. Notably, Bitcoin now represents over 2% of Mubadala’s $20.4B portfolio, making it the fund’s second-largest holding after GlobalFoundries.
• $2billion-0% 5yr senior convertible notes issuance by Strategy, formally MicroStrategy, has been announced on Thursday. The initial conversion rate is 2.3072 shares of MSTR for $1,000 principal amount of notes, representing an initial conversion price of $433.43 per share. The move is part of the company’s plan to issue $21 billion of equity and $21 billion in fixed-income instruments, including debt, convertible bonds and preferred stock, over the next three years.

Less speculation, more institutional conviction.

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Macro Risks Mount as Equities Stay Hot

Fed officials warn inflation could stay elevated, with unemployment at 4.0% and wages climbing. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ Bull/Bear Market Indicator is flashing red, signaling rising credit risk in equities and corporate debt market.

The yen carry trade has further fuelled risk assets, with investors borrowing cheap yen to chase higher yields elsewhere. However, any shift in BOJ policy or global liquidity tightening could unwind these positions, adding pressure to equity markets. The recent Core Inflation data released on Friday adds more odds to increase the benchmark rate by BOJ.

That’s pushing investors into safe havens—gold is holding strong, and Bitcoin’s next test is coming. If equities wobble, will BTC ETF holders stay the course?

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Bitcoin: No Credit Risk, Just Liquidity

Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin isn’t tied to credit risk—its liquidity will be the real test in market turbulence. Long-term players may consider bear put spreads to hedge upcoming volatility.

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Regulatory Moves: ETH Staking & Interest-Bearing Stablecoins

• The SEC is reviewing 21Shares’ ETH ETF staking proposal, which could unlock 3% yield for ETF holders.
• The first interest-bearing stablecoin (YLDS) just got SEC approval, offering 0.5% yield—a major shift in the stablecoin landscape.
• Montana’s House Business and Labor Committee voted 12-8 to approve House Bill No. 429, a bill which would allow the state to hold Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as reserve assets. If the bill becomes law, Montana’s state treasurer will be authorized to allocate up to $50 million into the account by mid-July 2025.